Old Farmer's Almanac and the National Weather Service alike are predicting a warmer winter for Michigan and the rest of the upper Midwest.
After 2017's slightly-chillier-than-average winter — which included a snowstorm that could be seen from outer space — Michiganders will be relieved to hear about the warmer and marginally wetter winter ahead.
The Great Lakes — Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie and Ontario on Feb. 9, 2018. (Photo: NOAA)
Farmer's Almanac, an immensely popular but not always reliable source of weather information, says "Winter will be warmer and rainier than normal, with near-normal snowfall" for what it terms the "lower lakes" region. This region includes most of Michigan's Lower Peninsula. The Almanac also predicts the coldest periods of the season will come in December and January, and says snow will appear intermittently from December through mid-March.
The Upper Peninsula can expect a similar winter, according to the Almanac, although snow there could start as early as Thanksgiving.
The National Weather Service concurs with the Almanac's broad sketch of the coming winter. It estimates a 40 percent chance of higher-than-average temperatures for the fall and winter. As for precipitation, the weather service predicts an equal chance of above average, below average, or normal rain and snow for the next six months.
The National Weather Service's outlook for temperatures in the United States in December 2018 and January and February 2019. Michigan has a 40 percent chance of experiencing above normal temperatures this winter. (Photo: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)
Part of the reason for the warmer winter might be El Niño. The weather event occurs when winds in the Pacific Ocean push warmer surface waters eastward, toward the West Coast.
When El Niño coincides with winter, according to the National Weather Service, Michigan and the rest of the Midwest experience a warmer season with precipitation more likely to be rain than snow. The weather service currently predicts a 60 percent chance of El Niño during the fall and a 70 percent chance of an El Niño winter.
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