Despite high unemployment numbers, there's some encouraging news for West Michigan's economy. Brian Long, director of Supply Management Research in Grand Valley State University's Seidman College of Business says data collected in the third and fourth weeks of May show the worst is behind us and that recovery has indeed begun. However, he says we should brace ourselves for that recovery to be slow-going.
"We're starting to dig ourselves out of a very deep hole so we can't expect miracles overnight but at least it is gratifying to say we've probably reached the bottom and are least starting to recover," says Long.
Long surveyed local business leaders and evaluated data collected during the last two weeks of May. He found many of our participants are still working from home or working on a reduced office-sharing schedule.
Long says "Many of our supply chains have been shaken, and restarting production will not be easy. As businesses around West Michigan continue to reopen, we can expect next month's statistics to continue to slowly improve."
He describes data showing unemployment stats statewide as the worst ever recorded. Of the 83 counties in Michigan, Long says the estimated unemployment rate ranged from 14.5% to 41.2%.
"Ottawa County, which often boasts the lowest rate in the state, came in at 21.2%. Kent County was close behind at 21.6%," says Long who doubts West Michigan will quickly bounce back to where it was before the crisis hit.
"In the past what we've always had is one of those V's where we jump up as soon as the recovery begins because of pent up demand, but then we have to turn around and assess the damage. But, right now we don't know what the damage is going to be. We're not sure which industrial businesses we're going to lose until we get well into the late part of the summer and see exactly where we stand," he says.
Still, he believes the region will continue to see improvement as early as next month. Long says we can't call a recession over until we return to full employment... which could take years, if history is an indicator.
But, he says expect to continue to see more improvement in next month's report.
RELATED HEADLINES:
►Make it easy to keep up to date with more stories like this. Download the 13 ON YOUR SIDE app now.
Have a news tip? Email news@13onyourside.com, visit our Facebook page or Twitter. Subscribe to our YouTube channel.