GRAND RAPIDS, Mich — What happened in the Iowa caucuses Monday night could give clues as to what could be expected here in Michigan, a month ahead of its own primaries.
On Monday, Donald Trump swept Iowa with over 50% of the statewide caucus vote, while also winning 98 of the state's 99 counties.
While Florida Governor Ron DeSantis pulled out a second-place win, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, who claimed a narrow third place, currently holds better polling prospects in the other early primary states of New Hampshire and her home state of South Carolina.
So what does Iowa's vote mean for West Michigan?
In order to answer that, it's best to go back to 2016 - the last time Trump had a substantial challenge from within his own party.
In 2016, Michigan had its primary later in the year than it will this year, giving Trump a chance to secure a number of states before ultimately gaining the traction to take Michigan as well. But here in West Michigan, he faced arguably his toughest challenge statewide in that 2016 primary.
As both a geographical and ideological cohort, Allegan, Ottawa, Muskegon, Oceana, Newaygo and Kent counties in West Michigan did not back Trump in March of 2016 - instead voting for U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas).
Since then, Trump has visibly transformed the Republican party and fielded a much higher level of internal support, which was no more evident than in the aftermath of his victory in Iowa on Monday.
Yet, close victories in a few Iowa counties shed some light on where DeSantis and Haley could have opportunity in Michigan's primary.
In particular, Haley's ability to come closer to Trump in more suburban, collegiate areas like Iowa State University's Story County and a one-vote victory in Johnson County just south of Cedar Rapids could mean that, if Trump faces a real challenge from any of his opponents in Michigan, it could likely come, once again, from West Michigan.
One county in particular that fits this description more than others in the region is Kent County.
Once reliably Republican, Kent has proven in the past few election cycles to have become a critical swing county in a critical swing state - in large part due to its large suburban populations in the areas surrounding the state's second-largest city of Grand Rapids.
This voting bloc that typically skews more moderate is a key demographic in the county that will likely hold great power in November and in February should the state's primary be highly contested.
"Kent County - and not only the whole county, but the different parts of the county - are really a bellwether for what is happening in the nation," Calvin University professor Doug Koopman said in September, amid an initially crowded GOP primary. "That more upper income and upper middle class and professional class suburbs that used to be strongly Republican during the time of [President Gerald R. Ford] and with members of Congress that we had, like Paul Henry, and Bernie Taylor's, would be solidly Republican. And when the Republican Party becomes more populist, in working class, those voters will start to be a little uncomfortable, and look elsewhere."
This evolution of sorts even led to President Joe Biden turning the county blue in the 2020 general election - becoming only the second Democratic presidential nominee to do so in 50 years behind Barack Obama in 2008.
Any registered voter can choose to vote in the Republican primary in Michigan, meaning it won't necessarily be just registered Republicans voting for GOP candidates.
But whether Haley or DeSantis are strong enough going into Michigan to mount a robust challenge to Trump in this state depends heavily on what happens in New Hampshire next week as well as in South Carolina on February 24, just three days before Michiganders take to the polls on February 27.
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