x
Breaking News
More () »

New Quinnipiac poll suggests slight lead for Trump in MI, deadlock in race for state's U.S. Senate seat

While the difference in support for the major presidential candidates hovered around the poll's margin of error, such further cements Michigan's battleground status.

GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. — Less than a month from Election Day, the latest polling in Michigan has continued to show an incredibly tight contest in the race for the White House.

The latest polling, however, may pose troubling signs for Democrats that had enjoyed slim but largely consistent leads in this key rust belt battleground in the opening months of Vice President Kamala Harris' presidential campaign.

In new polling released by Quinnipiac Wednesday afternoon, former President Donald Trump garnered 50% support from respondents, compared to Harris' 47% when other candidates and options were posed.

It's nearly a reversal from Quinnipiac's September poll that showed Harris with a five-point lead among respondents at that time, and follows an increasing trend in recent weeks of polls showing momentum and slight leads in Michigan for the Trump campaign.

When asked whom they felt would better handle certain issues as president, the plurality of voters in the poll sided with Trump when it came to the economy, immigration, preserving democracy in the U.S., the conflict in the Middle East and how he would perform as Commander in Chief of the military and in a crisis that put the country at great risk.

On the issue of abortion, the plurality in this poll sided with Harris.

Meanwhile, in the race for Michigan's open U.S. Senate seat, this poll suggests it couldn't be tighter.

A virtual tie between Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) and former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) in the poll saw both major candidates garner 48% support apiece from respondents.

That's compared to Slotkin's five-point lead in the pollster's September results.

While this poll was released Wednesday, Oct. 9, the opinions of respondents were collected from Oct. 3 through Oct. 7 - just before the first general election debate between Slotkin and Rogers on Oct. 8.

That debate, both candidates told 13 ON YOUR SIDE Tuesday night, was one they hoped would tilt the needle through the display of contrast.

"My opponent and I differ on a lot of very important issues—about the future of the automobile industry, what that means for jobs here in the state of Michigan," Rogers said. "We have big divergence there."

"I think people saw that tonight," he later continued. "And I think that's going to move their vote."

"Mr. Rogers and I have very different views on things like the middle class or the future of retirement, Medicare, Social Security, our rights, right? Our rights as Americans," Slotkin said. "I think it's important that people see that, and I think this debate did a pretty darn good job of showing those real stark differences."

Cook Political Report currently rates Michigan's Senate race as a "toss-up."

In the race for the White House, as of Wednesday afternoon, ABC's FiveThirtyEight forecast still concluded Vice President Harris held a slightly larger chance of winning the battleground states of Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Trump, on the other hand, held a slightly larger chance in the battlegrounds of North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona, according to FiveThirtyEight's forecast.

In the event that each of these states swings in these directions on Election Day - and all other states and districts produce their likely results - it would bestow Harris with 276 electoral votes and control of the White House.

Diverging from such a scenario, Harris could only afford to lose Nevada's six electoral votes while still managing to acquire the 270 necessary to claim victory.

However, should Trump carry the states of North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona - in addition to just one of the battleground rust belt states - he would be on his way to a second term.

Given that the poll's margin of error sits at 3.1%, some in Democratic circles may likely be undeterred.

"I'm not a big believer in polls," Slotkin supporter Cliff Hodge told 13 ON YOUR SIDE just prior to Tuesday's Senate debate. "Don't get lazy. Don't get comfortable. Get out. Tell everybody you know to get out and vote."

"When it's this close, the party that motivates people to vote is the party that's going to win, and this is really important this year, because democracy is on the ballot," he said.

But as the numbers were unveiled, signals of energy from some Republicans were evident.

Before You Leave, Check This Out