LAS VEGAS — The Tigers didn't act like a franchise poised to make a playoff run when the trade deadline arrived.
Detroit dealt pitcher Jack Flaherty to the Los Angeles Dodgers, outfielder Mark Canha to San Francisco reliever Andrew Chafin and catcher Carson Kelly to Texas.
At 52-57, the Tigers looked to the future and their long-shot betting odds for this season reflected that thinking. One Caesars Entertainment bettor in Michigan, however, had a different idea, betting the Tigers at 500-1 odds to win the World Series.
As in this year.
That wager doesn't look nearly as foolish now. The Tigers have made an improbable run to the postseason and will Houston in a best-of-three Wild Card Series starting Tuesday.
“They're definitely a danger in any short series, so I wouldn't count them out at all,” Caesars lead baseball trader Eric Biggio said.
BetMGM Sportsbook also had the Tigers at 500-1 before they went on their run.
“They were trading pieces away,” BetMGM trading strategy manager Halvor Egeland said. “Most people thought that they should trade (Tarik) Skubal away and they obviously made the right decision.”
Skubal won the AL pitching Triple Crown, leading in wins (18), ERA (2.39) and strikeouts (228).
BetMGM lists the Tigers at 28-1 to win the World Series. Definitely lower than 500-1.
Betting on the dogs
The expanded baseball playoffs have been more of a crapshoot in recent years.
Texas won an all-wild card World Series last year in five games. Philadelphia advanced to the World Series out of a wild-card spot on 2022 before a six-game loss to Houston. And in 2019, wild-card Washington beat the Astros in Game 7.
So it's little surprise that bettors are looking for more value, especially given there is no apparent super team. For the first time since 2014, no team won 100 games.
“Our top-five biggest liabilities are all wild-card teams,” Egeland said. “Some of them aren't the most bet, but they have these big plus-odds. The trend in recent years, these wild-card teams making a run to the World Series, it's standing out to bettors. You're seeing this big plus-money and teams that are hot.”
Even so, Egeland said BetMGM was taking more of a wait-and-see attitude before adjusting prices.
Biggio said he's seen a similar trend at Caesars, with San Diego in particular drawing notable action when the Padres were at about 21-1, dropping them to 11-1. San Diego plays the Atlanta Braves, which split with the New York Mets on Monday and enabled both teams to make the postseason as wild cards.
The big names
Even with so much attention on the underdogs, the New York Yankees and Dodgers still tend to draw the betting action, especially with casual bettors.
They're the top-seeded teams in their respective leagues and have first-round byes along with Cleveland and the Phillies.
“That would be great for handle if we were to have that World Series,” Biggio said. “If it turns out to be the case this year that the favorites advance, that would be fine with us.”
Three teams are nearly even favorites at BetMGM to win the championship — Dodgers at 13-4 and Yankees and Phillies each at 9-2.
Fading Astros
The Astros usually are considered among the top contenders, having appeared in the World Series four times since 2017 with two titles.
But Houston's slow start this season put that club under the radar almost from the beginning, and bettors still aren't paying much attention. The Astros have 9-1 odds at BetMGM.
“I think they're in the ALCS every year, so I think it's worthy of a bet,” Egeland said. “But the public isn't there. If (betting was) legal in Texas, I have a feeling the Astros would be there in the top, but since we're not (in that state), it seems to trend more to the states we're in.”
M-V-P
The Dodgers' Shohei Ohtani and the Yankees' Aaron Judge are the leading candidates to win MVP awards and the same applies to the postseason.
Ohtani is the 17-2 favorite at BetMGM to become the World Series MVP, and Judge is right behind at 25-2. Judge, however, is tied with the Phillies' Bryce Harper.
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