The most recent forecast model data has been released, and the Midwest is indeed expecting some severe weather this afternoon and evening.
The biggest threat will be confined to northeastern Missouri and west-central Illinois, however. Sunshine and humidity will be the difference makers in how strong these storms become. Wind speeds are strengthening in an effort to balance out the drastic temperature difference where there is cloud cover versus none.
Full forecast: 13 On Target Weather
The stronger the daytime heating due to more heat from the sun, the more windy the atmosphere will become from the Earth's surface to a mile above the surface. The current wind profile is also displaying a lot of counter-clock-wise twist as you travel higher up. This twisting motion is best described by a spring.
As this afternoon's thunderstorms mature, the rain and cloud droplets will be carried up into the atmosphere, allowing them to become more organized with specific, sustained air currents flowing through the anvil. This twisting motion is necessary for supercell development, which is the type of thunderstorm that most commonly produces hail and tornadoes.
As mentioned earlier, the most important factor in creating severe storms today will be the sunshine and subsequent warmth. Since these storms are expected to begin popping up in north-central Missouri in the afternoon, they will spend most of their time in central Illinois through the evening hours, which is noted by the Storm Prediction Center's latest severe weather forecast.
With sunset at 7:49 p.m., West Michigan will quickly lose the ability to support this severe weather as temperatures will begin falling.
Thunderstorms are still possible but they should remain well below severe limits. On the outside chance that West Michigan does see some severe weather, the main threat will be damaging winds in the early Wednesday morning hours.
While the severe weather threat is low, these storms will still be dangerous. Heavy rain, strong winds and frequent lightning strikes can be just as deadly as tornadoes.