GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. — This fall in West Michigan has felt like anything but fall, and as October rolls on the month is not looking anymore like fall either. Nature's fabulous fall colors have yet to make much of an appearance around the region, and like with many things in life, people are starting to blame it on the weather.
However, unlike with your excuses not to mow the lawn, the weather actually can be blamed for the lack of fall color around the state. A combination of warm October temperatures and a dry and droughty start to the summer have combined to make our October foliage both less colorful than normal and rather delayed in its start.
When you look at the foliage forecast, like this one from Pure Michigan, and the historical data, we should be nearing peak color around West Michigan this time of the year with portions of the state already heading past peak. However, when looking at this year, even locations in the upper peninsula, that should be past their peak, are still showing plenty of green!
So let's explain what's going on here.
First, the warm weather has led to a delay in our fall colors. According to Julie Crick, a Natural Resources Educator with MSU Extension, in order to get the fall colors to show up you need cooler weather to move in overnight.
Julie says, "it's really those cool nighttime temperatures that caused the chlorophyll to break down, and those yellow and orange pigments to show through for the fall colors that we normally see."
She adds that not only could these warm temperatures delay our fall colors, it could eliminate some of them altogether. Julie added, "The other thing that happens when it's very cool at night, is that the tree actually produces the red pigment. So that red that usually factors in for that brilliant display may not be showing up as much as we've seen it in the past"
When asked about the drought conditions early in the year, Julie said it could have a muting affect on our fall colors. She also cautioned that with our late start to the season a frost event could come through and put a total stop to the transition into fall color as leaves could fall quickly before displaying much of any color but brown.
When asked about her prediction for the season, she had the following to say.
"I think we're going to have a shortened season with a little bit muted colors, and that's because once the leaves do start changing, they're more likely to be falling off. I don't know the long term weather forecast, but I anticipate as most Octobers we'll probably have some more windy weather, cooler, wet, maybe a little bit of freezing toward the end of the month, and that could really just stop the show altogether and cause the leaves to fall off."
Finally, if you do want to get out and see some fall color, Julie recommends heading toward a place with hills and valleys, as these areas can have more variable temperatures and potentially pool in some cooler air overnight that could enhance the display.
The final word for the 2021 fall foliage season, take your chances to drink in the fall colors when and where you can. They may not be around for long and the timing will likely be harder to pin down.
-- Meteorologist Michael Behrens
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