Rounds of showers and storms begin this afternoon and will last throughout the weekend. Pockets of the showers and storms look to produce heavy downpours, resulting in high rainfall totals in a short timeframe.
Models are not in complete agreement on the placement of heavy showers. However, it is clear that two to four inches of rainfall is expected by Saturday night for West Michigan with localized heavier amounts, near five inches, possible.
While Thursday night signifies the start of the event, Friday and Saturday will bring the greatest rainfall totals. The Weather Prediction Center is in agreement with this, placing West Michigan under a level 2 threat for excessive rainfall. This means there is a 10 to 20% risk of rainfall resulting in flash flooding.
Localized flooding is the main concern. Those who will be impacted are drivers and individuals whose parking lots/yards are prone to flooding. This is because often flooding will occur in low-lying areas, roadways, and areas with poor drainage.
Another source of concern is rivers and streams. Although, Andrew Dixon, the hydrologist for the National Weather Service in Grand Rapids, expressed in his forecast discussion that the threat is limited. River levels are very low with our ongoing drought conditions, but we should still expect them to rise significantly. So, the Grand and Muskegon river should only experience minor flooding by early Saturday. Smaller rivers and streams do have a slightly higher risk of flooding.
On top of the flooding, there is a small potential for severe weather. As of Thursday afternoon, West Michigan remains under a level one threat for severe weather Thursday afternoon, Friday, and Saturday. Damaging winds, hail, and lightning are the main threats.
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