MICHIGAN, USA — Ice fishing is a popular wintertime activity across the Great Lakes. However, this winter has posed challenges for the recreation, with a shrinking window as the season progresses.
Its impact has been felt by enthusiasts and businesses that rely on it. Johnson’s Great Outdoors, a sporting goods store in Montague, has been directly affected by the lack of sustained cold this winter.
“The weather out here has been no winter whatsoever,” said owner Mitch Johnson. “We had probably four or five days where we had some ice fishing. Kind of the same thing as last year.”
The Great Lakes averaged 6% of ice coverage throughout January 2024, marking one of the lowest ice coverages recorded for January. Putting it in perspective, the long-term January average over the last fifty years is approximately 20%. Despite February in full swing, there remains time for a rebound.
“On average, our highest lake ice percentages come in the end of February and early March. Now, that is the long-term average,” said Bryan Mroczka, a physical scientist with the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory.
Smaller inland lakes respond quicker to any intrusion of cold air, but time is shrinking for safe ice fishing across West Michigan. This shrinking window presents a challenge for Johnson and his store.
“It hurts. Winter is probably one of our best times of the year where we make a lot of our money,” said Johnson. “You come here on a weekend we have ice, there are [people] lined out the door. You come in here on Saturday now, we’re getting maybe five, six people maybe an hour.”
The forecast remains unsupportive for ice fishing through the end of the week as temperatures soar into the 50s on Thursday and Friday (Feb. 8 and 9). Temperatures will cool closer to average by the middle of the month, with a greater probability of remaining near average into the start of March. As February progresses, average highs increase from the lower 30s to the upper 30s, and average lows increase from the upper 10s to the lower 20s.
“I wouldn’t look for an extended ice fishing season here in the Great Lakes. If it does occur, it will be very small-scale and small duration periods,” said Mroczka. “The type of environment that’s going to really put a dent in this year’s lack of ice is fairly unlikely at this point.”
The uncertainty of sustained ice fishing before winter ends is making some at Johnson’s Great Outdoors to think ahead.
“They’re [customers] buying stuff for spring and summer right now. The way the winters are kind of going this way, we’re going to have to start thinking a little out of the hat and start moving a little forward without winter stuff,” said Johnson. “It hurts everything. The restaurants, the gas stations, it’s a trickle-down effect.”
Over the last fifty years, the Great Lakes have lost about 5% of its maximum ice coverage per decade. Variability will continue year to year, but it’s a trend not expected to end.
“We’re seeing more winters with low ice than high, but it doesn’t mean that next winter isn’t going to be a high ice season. It just means those high ice years are becoming less frequent with time,” said Mroczka. “The trend is definitely away from the favor of the ice fisherman.”
While the season for ice fishing is shrinking, Johnson remains confident as long as his customers can fish on ice or on boat.
“I’m going to be positive. I can tell you that. Our thing is if you can get out and go fish, you must take advantage of it," he said.
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