GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. — We are certainly starting this winter season off with a blast as lake-effect snow intensifies across the region.
Our first Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for Ottawa, Allegan, and Van Buren Counties. This comes as persistent lake-effect snow continues through early Tuesday morning, heavily impacting southern Ottawa, Allegan, and Van Buren counties.
Areas within the Winter Storm Warning and directly along the lakeshore boundary should expect 6 inches of widespread snow, with localized amounts nearing a foot.
Closer to the lakeshore in our northern counties are the purple Winter Weather Advisories. Snowfall totals will range from 3 widespread with localized 8 inches within these areas.
Here is a 24-hour snowfall map from now through Tuesday morning.
Notice how sharp the snowfall gradient is and how conditions can change on a mile-by-mile basis. This highlights the potential for rapidly deteriorating or fluctuating conditions within the lake-effect snow bands themselves.
Here is the hyper-local output from the HRRR model. While these numbers won't be perfect city by city, they illustrate the localized nature of this storm and provide the best estimate of which areas could be most severely impacted. Based on current band placement this morning and model projections, we do foresee the heaviest bands remaining concentrated along the lakeshore boundary itself.
Typically, we wouldn't show a model like this, knowing it won't be perfect. However, we think it's important to demonstrate how quickly conditions can vary depending on your neighborhood. If we see any shift in the wind, these bands could change orientation slightly, bringing significantly different snowfall totals to nearby areas.
The main message is that all lakeshore counties should plan on difficult late morning and evening commutes with highly variable road conditions possible, especially the closer you get to the lake itself.
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