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Can a warmer climate bring more snow so West Michigan?

When you think of warmer temperatures you may not think of heavy snow, but that could be our reality. Meteorologist Michael Behrens explains how!

GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. — When it comes to winter and snowfall in West Michigan it is hard to get too much further without thinking about cold temperatures as well. However, a warming climate and warmer average temperatures could actually have the opposite effect of what you might think. 

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Believe it or not, a warmer environment can actually lead to heavier amounts of snowfall and heavier types of snowfall when it does come down. This is because when the air is warmer it can physically hold more moisture and can lead to heavier snowfall rates and a wetter/physically heavier snow to fall. 

Credit: Climate Central/WZZM
Warmer air can hold more moisture and result in heavier snowfall rates and wetter/heavier snowfall.

When it comes to our temperatures, we have seen a noticeable downward trend in days where temperatures fall below the freezing mark in the last 30 years. This demonstrates how our years are warming on average as of recent history, which could result in more of these heavy/wet snowfall events in the years ahead. 

Credit: Michael Behrens
The last 30 years of freezing temperature days in West Michigan have shown a downward trend over time.

If these trends continue at their current rate, we could be looking at a drastically different winter by the end of the century. The images below from Climate Central show how this may play out over time. 

In addition to simply allowing air to hold more moisture, snowfall in winter for West Michigan can be increased for another factor by warmer temperatures, that factor is our lake-effect snowfall.

Warmer winters mean Lake Michigan will be less likely to freeze up enough for lake-effect snow to stop forming by the end of the winter season. This means all months of winter could be impacted by heavy accumulations of lake-effect snow, even ones that traditionally would not previously see this snow. 

The trend for the last almost 50 years shows this pattern already playing out, as overall ice coverage on Lake Michigan continues to trend downward. 

Credit: Michael Behrens
This graph shows the trend of Lake Michigan ice coverage from 1973 through 2021.

With heavier winter snows a possibility in our changing climate, making sure you stay prepared is essential. The 13 On Your Side Weather Team will keep you informed each and every winter, regardless of how snowy things can get! 

-- Meteorologist Michael Behrens

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Email me at: MBehrens@13OnYourSide.com

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