West Michigan Winter Weather Outlook 2023-24

After an unprecedented three consecutive years of La Niña conditions, there’s a 95% chance that El Niño will affect this winter’s weather. 

El Niño is when the Pacific trade winds along the equator weaken, allowing warmer sea surface water to move towards South America. 

This pulls the jet stream further south, keeping more precipitation along the southern United States, leaving the northern U.S. drier than usual. 

Meanwhile, the polar jet stream remains north with fewer cold air intrusions reaching the lower 48. As a result, the weather for West Michigan trends warmer and drier than average during El Niño winters.

-- Chief Meteorologist George Lessens

Winters with the impacts of climate change are trending warmer and more unusual. Grand Rapids winters have warmed by 5.1° since 1970. Still keeping it cold, but not like the winters our grandparents experienced. 

Climate change contributes to less widespread snowfall, but because our lakes struggle to freeze over, we see more lake-effect rain and snow. With this warming trend, the window to enjoy winter weather is getting shorter and shorter. Since 1970 Grand Rapids has seen 20+ days above average. 

This is not just here in Michigan, 233 United States locations have warmed by nearly 4 degrees since 1970. It's also the fastest warming season for most United States locations. This causes a reduced water supply, decreased trends in heating in homes, disrupted growth of crops and fruit, an increase in disease-carrying pests, and allergy season gets longer.  

-- Meteorologist Samantha Jacques

After being popularized as a term several years ago, the polar vortex is now something top of mind for Michiganders every winter. While it is nothing new, the pool of cold air that makes up the vortex can have major impacts to our winter conditions here in West Michigan. 

A strong polar vortex will keep things more stable, with large winter storms and outbreaks of polar air out of the forecast. 

If the vortex weakens, portions of it can break off and travel south. This can result in some of us seeing major snowfall events and temperatures well below average, while others may see unseasonable warmth. 

The polar vortex can be something of a wildcard and fluctuate throughout the season, so watch the latest 13 On Your Side Forecast to know if a blast of polar air is heading our way!

-- Meteorologist Michael Behrens

Analogs are records, not like the vinyl you're used to, but of past weather events. To help forecast this upcoming winter, we must look at previous winters. Analogs look back at times when meteorological factors were like those that are expected in the future. In our case, records of past El Niño winters can give a better understanding of how temperature and precipitation may behave this upcoming season. 

-- Meteorologist Blake Hansen 

Well, you’ve heard about El Niño, climate influence on future winters, analogs comparing past winters, and the polar vortex. All this combined sets up a high likelihood that the winter of 2023-24 will likely be WARMER than USUAL with LESS SNOWFALL.

-- The 13 On Your Side Weather Team

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